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Modus Jaargang 16 nr 1

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The use by statistical agencies in each international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all (Principle 9, Uni ted Nations, Fundamental principles of Official Statistics) (Principle 9, United Nations, Fundamental principles of Official Statistics)

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16; Nr.1 . In dit nummer: Technology and Media Use through Conversion of Gross domestic product into Gross national income and gross national income per capita for Curaçao, 2014 2015 International reserves: a Precautionary or a Mercantilist instrument A multidimensional ass essment of Social Cohesion in Curaçao . 41 Resultaten Conjunctuurenquête jaar 2017 COLOFON Uitgave en distributie Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek WTC Building, Piscaderabay z/n Telefoon: (5999 )839 2300 info@cbs.cw www.cbs.cw F acebook: cbscur digitallibrary.cbs.cw Algemene coördinatie Harely Martina Redactie/bijdragen Ellen Maduro Solange Bomberg Glenda Varlack Maurette Williams Antersijn Lorette Ford Glenda Varla ck Nicole Wever Joyce Mahabali Chris Jager Hoofd en eindredactie Sean de Boer Vormgeving Islin Isebia Abonnement Modus is gratis downloadbaar van de website van het CBS www.cbs.cw R eageren op de inhoud info@cbs.cw © 2018 Centraal Bureau voor de Statisti ek Het overnemen van (delen) van deze publicatie is slechts toegestaan mits voorzien van een volledige bronvermelding.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 2 Voorwoord Modus Jrg 16; Nr.1 Geachte lezer, In 2017 heeft het CBS een ICT & Mediaonderzoek op Curaçao verricht. In dit eerste artikel wordt gekeken naar het verschil in gebruik van technologie en media tussen de generaties; meer specifiek, of er inderdaad een verschil is in het gebruik van de traditionele en moderne media.Traditionele media worden gedefinieerd als radio, krant en televisie. Moderne media wordt gedefinieerd als internet en sociale media. Het Bruto Nationaal inkomen (BNI) en het Bruto Nationaal Product (BBP) zijn internationale methodes om groei en afname van de economie van een land te meten. Voor Curaçao worden het BNI en het BBP berekend door het CBS. In dit nummer gaat de auteur in op de wijze waarop het CBS het BBP omzet in het BNI per capita. Verder wordt de ontwikkeling van de internationale reserves op Curaçao en Sint Maarten over de jaren 2010 2016 besch reven en wordt onderzocht of de internationale reserves gebruikt worden als een voorzorgsmaatregel of als een mercatilisme instrument voor deze eilanden Tussen november 2015 en januari 2016 heeft het CBS voor de eerste keer op Curaçao een onderzoek naar d e Sociale Cohesie verricht. De focus van het onderzoek lag op de vraag of de samenleving werkt aan het welzijn van al haar leden, inclusie bevordert, sociale betrokkenheid creëert, participatie stimuleert, vertrouwen bevordert en haar leden de mogelijkheid biedt van opwaartse mobiliteit. In dit nummer is het theoretisch kader van sociale cohesie opgenomen, gevolgd door een analyse van de op de theorie gebaseerde multidimensionale structuur van de sociale cohesie. Verder heeft het CBS op basis van de resultaten van de bedrijvencensus van 2014 onderzoek verricht naar de afkomst en het opleidingsniveau van de directeuren/ eigenaren van bedrijven op Curaçao. In dit nummer is een artikel over dit onderzoek opgenomen. Al s laatste onderwerp in deze Modus worden de resultaten van de opinievragen van de Conjunctuur enquête over het jaar 2017 gepresenteerd. De Conjunctuur enquête wordt twee keer per jaar onder de bedrijven op Curaçao gehouden. Doel van de enquête is om op reg uliere basis actuele informatie te verkrijgen over bedrijfsmatige en economische parameters en ontwikkelingen. Daarnaast verschaft het inzicht in verwachtingen en opinies van ondernemers. Al deze onderwerpen zijn te lezen in deze editie van Modus. Veel le esplezier. Sean de Boer Directeur CBS

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 3 Technology and Media Use through Generations Maurette Williams Antersijn The ICT and Media Survey, conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2017, has the objective of understanding the extent to which the population of Curaçao has access to Information and Communi cation Technology (ICT) and media and how it is used. More specifically this means that questions were asked regarding access to ICT devices and services, frequency, location, purpose and device of media and ICT used. As time passes, world developments inf luence and mold generations through evolutions. How are babies able to use computers and touch screen devices while it takes older generations longer to learn this skill? The general belief that the younger generations are so involved with mobile phones a nd the information highway thus becoming less socially inclined, does that translate into their behavior? According to research, we can distinguish five different generations starting from the 1900s. This article will not discuss the definition of each gen The five different generations that will be considered in this article are: 1. Generation Z, iG en, or Centennials: Born 1996 and later 2. Millennials or Generation Y: Born 1977 to 1995 3. Generation X: Born 1965 to 1976 4. Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964 5. Traditionalists or Silent Generation: Born 1945 and before According to The Center of Generational Kinect ics generations differ from each other on three levels: parenting, technology, and economics ( http://genhq.com/faq info about generations/ ). In this article, we will look at the use of technolog y across the generation; more specifically, whether there is indeed a difference in the use of the traditional and modern media. As media evolves and technology becomes more prevalent nowadays, technology and media become more and more intertwined. In thi s article, we separate the media and technology highlighted in the survey into traditional and modern media. Traditional media is defined as radio, newspaper and television. Modern media is defined as internet and social media. Social media is designed to be used as a medium with which people stay in contact with others. The internet can be used to access online television, newspapers, watching movies and listening to music. Methodology A sample of 3,000 households were approached and questions were asked to all inhabitants six years and older. Children from 0 5 years old only answered demographic and educational questions. Children from 6 to 14 years old were only asked about the use of media and technology and not details of how these were used. This was done, not only for time constraints, but also because their use of After the fieldwork period, 1,227 households responded. Non response was 49.34 percent with refusal as the major reason for not participating. The response gives us an error margin of 2.77 percent. The questions gathered demographic background information as well as specific questions on radio, television, newspaper, social media, computer, internet and internet security.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 4 Definition Generation group of individuals, most of whom are the same approximate age, having similar ideas, pro1blems, Medium Medium is a channel or system of communication, information, or entertainment (Merriam Webster dictionary) Radio A radio is defined as a device capable of receiving broadcast radio signals, using common frequencies, such as FM, AM, LW and SW. A radio may be a stan d alone device, or it may be integrated with another device, such as an alarm clock, an audio player, a mobile telephone or a computer. Television A television (TV) is a device capable of receiving broadcast television signals, using popular access means such as over the air, cable and satellite. A television set is typically a stand alone device, but it may also be integrated with another device, such as a computer or a mobile telephone. Newspaper Newspaper is a paper that is printed and distributed usua lly daily or weekly and that contains news, articles of opinion, features, and advertising Social Media Social media are forms of electronic communication (such as websites for social networking and microblogging) through which users create online communi ties to share information, ideas, personal messages, and other content (such as videos) Internet The Internet is a worldwide public computer network. It provides access to a number of communication services including the World Wide Web and carries e mail, news, entertainment and mobile telephone, tablet, PDA, games machine, digital TV etc.). Access can be via a fixed or mobile network.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 5 Generations: Des cription The Traditionalists or Silent generation are those born 1945 and before. The characteristics of the Traditionalist generation is their need not to disturb social order. They have been labeled as the Silent Generation because they do not want to c hange the system, but instead they would rather work within the norms of society by not disturbing the existing balance. The Baby Boomers are born between 1946 and 1964. The start of this generation coincides with the end of the Second World War. The star t of the generation signifies a boom in childbirth from after the war which in turn coincided with a boom in the economy. Baby boomers thus grew up in an environment that believed the world to be a prosperous and safe place. Technology has an impact on thi s generation as they use it to keep in touch and working from home. Generation X members are born between 1965 and 1976. They are what is called an in between generation, sandwiched between the Baby Boomers and the Millennials. They have gone through a dot com crash and are more reliant on technology. The Millennials, born between 1977 and 1995, grew up in an electronics filled and increasingly online and socially networked world. Parented by Baby Boomers and early Generation X parents they are very positiv e and highly educated yet this over optimism caused most to be employed in different fields from their study. With a wider world available to them, they tend to be more tolerant. The latest generation, Generation Z or Centennials are still largely kids an d adolescents. As a generation they are hard pressed to know any other communication methods besides social media. As a result, they tend to live much more of their entire lives from interacting with friends and family to making major purchases online and via their smartphones. To make it a more even field, for this article, we see those aged 6 15 as a separate group as they include children who do not have the ability to freely choose the media and content they would like to see. On Curaçao we show the distribution of the generations as follows: Distribution of generations (6 years and older) Generations (6 years and older) Percentage of Curaçao population Traditionalists or Silent Generation 9.73 Baby Boomers 28.22 Generation X 17.25 Millennials o r Generation Y 22.67 Generation Z, iGen, or Centennials 21.10 Youth 6 15 years old 0.41 Table 1. Distribution of Generations (6 years and older) The distribution shown in table 1 show the same trend as described above namely baby Boomers are big in si ze and Generation X is indeed sandwiched in size between the Baby Boomers and the Millennials. Table 2 shows the use of the different media between these generations. The older generation, the Traditionalist or the Silent generation, tend to use tradition al media more than the modern media. However, the other generations show less visible variance in their usage.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 6 Table 1. Media Usage of Generations (6 years and older) Type of Media Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millenni als or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Youth 06 15 Computer 23.1% 62.4% 78.3% 84.7% 79.2% 40.1% Internet 22.8% 62.1% 77.8% 82.1% 75.7% 30.0% Social Media 20.0% 62.6% 83.4% 93.9% 69.6% 10.1% Newspaper 75.8% 73.6% 63.3% 49.8% 18.6% Radio 77.3% 79.4% 75.3% 69.5% 40.4% Television 89.8% 89.0% 83.1% 79.8% 83.7% 100.0% Table 2. Media usage by generations (6 years and older) Graph 1. Traditional Media Usage by Generations (6 years and older)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 7 Graph 2. Modern Media Usage by Generations (6 years and o lder) Generations: Radio use Radio usage of each generation is indexed against the overall average usage of the population aged 6 years and older. This means that the Traditionalist or Silent Generation use radio 15% more often that the average person. As expected, the Generation Z uses radio 41% less than the average person as they are more used to modern media and tend to listen to music through internet instead of radio (Graph 3). In general, we see that radio is used more by the older generations. In f act, there is a decline in the use of radio through the generations. Generation Z or the Centennials use the radio significantly less than the other generations (Graph 3). Graph 3 shows the use of radio for the different generations indexed against the ave rage use of radio. Indexing the findings allows for a more proportional view of the depth of the differences. Listening to music on the internet or the computer allows for a better control on the choice of music listened to. It offers the user the ability to tailor the music to their specific taste and preferences. This could be the reason that younger generations are less likely to use radio than the older generation.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 8 Graph 3. Radio usage Indexed against Average Use (6 years and older)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 9 Table 3. Radio Programs by Generations (6 years and older) Radio Programs Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Aruba News 107 96 80 60 10 BES News 104 98 79 59 11 Business 81 96 85 65 13 Children Programs 80 81 95 74 13 Culture 102 89 83 63 16 Health 109 100 74 56 13 International News 102 92 81 65 11 Local 95 93 76 66 16 Lottery 138 98 80 46 7 Music 78 83 80 75 25 Obituary 143 103 67 44 11 Parliament 111 98 87 47 12 Police N ews 97 90 82 66 15 Regional News 102 97 82 58 10 Science 86 100 79 60 15 Spirituality 95 96 86 57 14 Sports 88 91 74 68 21 Weather 105 94 81 58 15 Table 3. Radio Programs by Generations (6 years and older) Comparing the programs listened to, Table 3 shows that Centennials are more inclined to listen to music or sports whereas the Traditionalists listen to the obituaries and the winning lottery numbers and they are less likely to listen to music and sports. Generation Z tend to listen to music but at 25% of what the average person does.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 10 Generations: Television use The use of television does not show much variance statistically between the different generations (Graph 4). Each generation watches television as often as the next. The one group that stan ds out are the Youth as they are 18% higher than the average with an index of 118. Graph 4. Television usage by Generation (6 years and older) Looking at the programs watched (Table 4), we can see that the generations behave differently according to th e type of program. Older generations are more interested in news programs as the interest declines as the generations get younger. Each generation has one program that they watch more than all others. Table 4 shows that Traditionalists watch the BES news, Baby Boomers watch Spirituality programs, Generation X watches business programs, Millenials watch Cultural programs and Centennials watch sports.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 11 Table 4. Television Programs by Generations (6 years and older) TV programs Traditionalists or Silent Gen eration Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Local 145 129 81 71 17 Aruba 144 125 98 67 14 BES News 146 124 98 68 14 Police News 133 115 101 75 19 Regional News 138 125 100 66 16 International News 126 120 101 74 19 Business 104 118 104 84 19 Sports 110 113 91 79 39 Culture 114 107 94 88 32 Science 114 120 104 72 25 Movies 86 99 99 96 43 Health 130 122 101 70 18 Lottery 156 125 101 62 12 Obituary 179 133 94 47 12 Weather 122 120 102 73 21 Spirituality 13 0 127 106 65 15 Children Programs 70 84 105 109 50 Table 4. Television Programs by Generations (6 years and older) Table 5. Top 3 Television Programs by Generations (6 years and older) Top 3 programs Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Ge neration X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials 1 Obituary Obituary Spirituality Children programming Children programming 2 Lottery Local news Children programs Movies Movies 3 BES news Spirituality Business Culture Sports Table 5. Top 3 T elevision Programs by Generation (6 years and older) According to table 4 and 5, we can thus conclude that even though the level of engagement with the medium of television does not change significantly over generations, the type of programs watched does change accordingly.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 12 Generations: Newspaper use As with radio, Centennials are not as involved with newspapers as the Traditionalists (Graph 5). This is in large part due to the age of the Centennials as this generation is relatively young and thus in te rms of age would be too young to read the newspaper.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 13 Graph 5. Newspaper Usage Indexed by Generation (6 years and older) Table 6 shows the relative small numbers of newspaper readers in the Centennial generation compared to the other generations. It also shows that Traditionalists and Baby Boomers are quite similar in the articles that they read. Table 6. Newspaper Articles by Generations (6 years and older) Newspaper article Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennial s or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Aruba News 91 83 58 42 11 Bes News 90 83 57 43 11 Business 74 78 68 46 12 Columns 93 83 63 41 8 Culture 84 79 61 46 13 Editorial 88 83 64 42 9 Health 91 83 62 40 10 International News 83 80 59 48 11 Letters 9 4 82 64 41 7 Local 83 78 62 48 12 Lottery 91 83 62 40 10 Obituary 92 85 64 38 8 Police 84 79 63 48 11 Puzzles 92 71 68 41 19 Regional News 85 81 62 46 10 Science 84 82 62 41 14 Spirituality 90 83 65 37 11 Sports 85 75 60 50 14 Weather 88 82 64 40 11 Table 6. Newspaper Articles by Generation (6 years and older)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 14 Generations: Internet use The generation who uses the internet more than the average person is the Millennials (Graph 6). Their usage is 20% higher than the average. Surprisingly the Cent ennials are the third highest (index = 111). The internet usage of the Traditionalists is extremely low compared to the average. Graph 6. Internet Usage by Generation (6 years and older)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 15 The youth aged 06 14 are less of an internet user (index 44) d ue to their age. This shows that including this group with the Generation Z will influence them negatively. Internet can be used for different purposes. For this survey, we divided internet actions into seeking information, interactive, personal actions an d online transactions. Table 7. Internet Actions by Generation (6 years and older) OBTAINING INFORMATION Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Find information on products and se rvices 19 63 97 105 36 Find health related information 20 72 108 104 16 Find information on a government organization 22 75 93 96 32 Consulting wikis (Wikipedia etc.), online encyclopedias or other webpages for purposes related to formal education 17 61 94 111 36 Reading or downloading electronic newspapers, magazines or books online 16 54 82 104 64 INTERACTIONS WITH ORGANIZATIONS While interacting with a government organization 4 26 57 153 72 Using travel or travel lodging related services 19 79 90 112 15 Make an appointment with a doctor (GP) through a website 14 73 115 98 16 Taking a formal course online 9 38 75 122 74 Listening to web radio 5 41 71 161 31 Watching web TV 16 50 96 116 42 Streaming or downloading pictures, movies, videos or mu sic 11 43 129 109 36 Maintaining or adding content to a blog 18 73 105 100 23 Voicing your opinion on a social or political issue on a website 8 48 95 125 42 Taking part in online consultations or voting online to decide on social or political issues. 7 49 84 121 55 PERSONAL INTERACTIONS Sending or receiving e mail 9 49 73 117 66 Making calls over the internet (VoIP) 9 44 80 135 49 Participating in social networks 18 65 86 99 49 Participating in professional networks 20 66 90 96 47 Administering your own home page 2 15 76 187 38 Uploading content created by yourself onto a website 10 39 85 126 62 Finding work or sending out job applications 11 41 72 126 67 Using space on the internet to store documents, pictures, music, videos or other files 9 53 99 141 13 Talking to friends and/or families 11 54 89 113 51 Using software on the internet to process text, documents, spreadsheets or presentations 16 63 88 100 51 ONLINE SHOPPING Purchasing or ordering products or services 21 66 111 111 14 Sel ling products or services 9 51 93 124 40 For internet banking 8 48 88 147 26

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 16 Table 7. Internet Actions by Generation (6 years and older) When looking at the degree of involvement with the internet, Traditionalist are more comfortable with looking for information instead of engaging in personal interactions such as owning and administering their own page (Table 7). Generation X and Millennials are more involved in online shopping than Centennials and the older generations. Overall, one can see that the Millennials are more active on the internet than the other generations. Generations: Social media use Even though Centennials use the internet more than average, they are not high level social media users. Social media usage measures whether a person ha s used any of the social media platforms in the last three months. Graph 7. Internet Usage Indexed against Average Use (6 years and older)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 17 There is an obvious gap between the Centennials and Millennials as they are more involved with Snapchat and Ins tagram than the other generations. Older generations are more into networking social media platforms than the faster paced social media. From all the different social sites, Twitter and Snapchat are faster paced where they focus on what is happening in the moment instead of sites such as Facebook and Instagram which are more focused on social relationships. This can explain why Millennials are not as involved in these faster based applications. Graph 8. Social media Platforms Indexed against Average Use

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 18 Summary Generations are groups of people who grew up in the same time period with the same world and social influences. Their upbringing shapes thoughts and behavior. Through time, generations need to adjust to their changing environment. In the last cen tury, technology plays a bigger role every year. Younger generations are born into the age of technology whereas older generations need to adapt to this modern and faster world. One can already see that babies and children are born with an instinct on how to use technology. The ICT & Media Survey highlights the differences in the integration of technology and media between the different generations. Younger generations such as Generation Z and Generation Y are more likely to use modern media than the older generation. References Merriam Webster dictionary, https://www.merriam webster.com/dictionary/generation The Silent Generation, "The Lucky Few", https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/2014/08/13/the silent generation the lucky few part 3 of 7/#821e9f32c63b Baby Boomer, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baby_boomer.asp Millennials (Generation Y), http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/millennials mill ennial generation Top 10 Gen Z Questions Answered, http://genhq.com/igen gen z generation z centennials info/ Generation X (Gen X), http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/generation x genx.asp Generational Breakdown: Info About All of the Generations, http://genhq.com/faq info about generations/ How the different Generations use Media differently, https://www.engarde.net/media usage generation x y z/#.WyPNv1VKjWo Social Media Use in 2018, http://www.pewinternet. org/2018/03/01/social media use in 2018/ How Different Generations Use Social Media Apps, https://www.business2community.com/social media/d ifferent generations use social media apps 02024237 Measuring the Information Society Report 2017 Volume 1, International Telecommunication Union

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 19 Extra tables Share of usage MEDIA Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Genera tion X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials Youth 06 14 Mean COMPUTER 23.10% 62.40% 78.30% 84.70% 79.20% 40.10% 69.80% INTERNET 22.80% 62.10% 77.80% 82.10% 75.70% 30.00% 68.20% MOBILE DEVICE 64.90% 93.20% 97.30% 96.60% 73.90% 9.90% 87.30% N EWSPAPER 75.80% 73.60% 63.30% 49.80% 18.60% 0.00% 54.40% RADIO 77.30% 79.40% 75.30% 69.50% 40.40% 0.00% 67.30% SOCIAL MEDIA 20.00% 62.60% 83.40% 93.90% 69.60% 10.10% 70.30% TELEVISION 89.80% 89.00% 83.10% 79.80% 83.70% 100.00% 84.70% RADIO_PROGRAM Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials ARUBA NEWS 30.20% 27.10% 22.50% 17.00% 2.70% BES NEWS 29.20% 27.30% 22.10% 16.50% 3.10% BUSINESS 18.20% 21.60% 19.10% 14.60% 2 .90% CHILDREN PROGRAMS 7.10% 7.20% 8.40% 6.60% 1.20% CULTURE 41.30% 36.10% 33.80% 25.70% 6.30% HEALTH 41.70% 38.20% 28.50% 21.30% 5.00% INTERNATIONAL NEWS 49.70% 45.10% 39.50% 31.60% 5.40% LOCAL 59.40% 58.20% 47.50% 41.10% 9.70% LOTTERY 25.80% 18.30% 14.80% 8.70% 1.30% MUSIC 54.00% 57.50% 56.00% 52.40% 17.30% OBITUARY 36.50% 26.30% 17.10% 11.30% 2.70% OTHER PROGRAM 0.50% 2.90% 1.60% 1.30% 0.40% PARLIAMENT 19.30% 17.10% 15.20% 8.20% 2.10% POLICE NEWS 50.20% 46.60% 42.40% 34.10% 7.80% REGIONAL NEW S 40.10% 38.30% 32.30% 22.70% 4.00% SCIENCE 17.40% 20.20% 16.00% 12.30% 3.10% SPIRITUALITY 35.80% 36.20% 32.10% 21.50% 5.20% SPORTS 31.30% 32.60% 26.60% 24.30% 7.40% WEATHER 33.00% 29.70% 25.50% 18.20% 4.60%

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 20 TV_ PROGRAM Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials ARUBA 42.6% 37.1% 29.0% 19.7% 4.0% BES NEWS 42.5% 36.0% 28.4% 19.7% 4.2% BUSINESS 24.0% 27.4% 24.1% 19.3% 4.4% CHILDREN PROGRAMS 12. 2% 14.8% 18.3% 19.0% 8.8% CULTURE 53.8% 50.4% 44.2% 41.2% 15.0% HEALTH 52.5% 49.3% 40.9% 28.3% 7.1% INTERNATIONAL NEWS 66.3% 63.2% 53.2% 38.7% 10.1% LOCAL 66.5% 59.4% 37.1% 32.7% 7.6% LOTTERY 42.0% 33.6% 27.1% 16.7% 3.2% MOVIES 51.5% 59.4% 59.4% 57.5 % 25.5% OBITUARY 49.9% 37.2% 26.2% 13.1% 3.4% OTHER 1.5% 3.7% 4.8% 3.0% 1.5% POLICE NEWS 60.8% 52.6% 46.0% 34.4% 8.7% REGIONAL NEWS 56.8% 51.4% 41.3% 27.3% 6.7% SCIENCE 28.1% 29.4% 25.6% 17.7% 6.1% SPIRITUALITY 40.3% 39.2% 32.9% 20.0% 4.8% SPORTS 45 .5% 46.7% 37.7% 32.8% 16.0% WEATHER 40.9% 40.2% 34.3% 24.6% 7.0%

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 21 PAPER_ARTICLE Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials ARUBA NEWS 49.1% 44.8% 31.0% 22.8% 5.7% BES NEWS 47.6% 44.1% 30.3% 22.8% 5.7% BUSINESS 31.2% 33.0% 28.5% 19.4% 5.2% COLU MNS 33.5% 30.0% 22.9% 14.8% 2.9% CULTURE 48.2% 45.4% 34.9% 26.5% 7.4% EDITORIAL 34.7% 32.7% 25.2% 16.4% 3.7% HEALTH 51.2% 47.1% 34.9% 22.7% 5.5% INTERNATIONAL NEWS 56.9% 55.1% 40.4% 32.9% 7.8% LETTERS 34.5% 30.4% 23.7% 15.1% 2.7% LOCAL 63.0% 59.1% 47 .2% 36.6% 8.7% LOTTERY 51.2% 47.1% 34.9% 22.7% 5.5% OBITUARY 56.3% 51.8% 39.3% 23.5% 4.8% OTHER 2.5% 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.2% POLICE 55.7% 52.6% 42.1% 31.8% 7.1% PUZZLES 15.2% 11.7% 11.3% 6.8% 3.1% REGIONAL NEWS 51.9% 49.2% 37.4% 27.7% 6.1% SCIENCE 32.7% 31.7% 24.1% 16.0% 5.4% SPIRITUALITY 36.2% 33.5% 26.1% 15.0% 4.4% SPORTS 47.6% 42.3% 33.8% 28.1% 7.6% WEATHER 38.5% 35.8% 27.9% 17.5% 4.8%

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 22 Top 3 articles Traditionalists or Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials or Gen Y Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials 1 Letters to editor Obituary Business Sports Puzzles 2 Columns Spirituality / Lottery numbers / Hea lth / Editorial / Columns Puzzles International news Science 3 Puzzles and Winning lottery numbers Aruba news / BES news Spirituality Local news Sports

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 23 Conversion of Gross domestic product into Gross national income and gross national income per capita for Curaçao, 2014 2015 Lorette Ford Introduction Gross national income (GNI ) is besides Gross domestic product (GDP) a widely use measure for the size of the economy. Gross National Income per capita is used as a measure of welfare of a country; it reflects the average income of the citizens of that country. G ross national income ( GNI ) is the total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents of a country, consisting of Gross domestic product ( GDP ) plus incomes earned by foreign residents 1 , minus income earned in the d omestic economy by nonresidents (Todaro & Smith, 2011: 44). Income in this case refers to primary income 2 such as labor income, rents and profits. The concept of domestic means earned or produced within the territory of a country (no matter by residents o r non residents) and national means earned or produced by the residents of a country. The GDP, GNI and GNI per capita of Curaçao are compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics on the basis of the guidelines of the system of national accounts (SNA). SN A is the internationally agreed standard set of recommendations on how to compile measures of economic activities. The purpose of this article is to give an understanding of how GDP is converted into GNI and GNI per capita. In the next paragraphs, the def inition is given of the concepts used in this article, then with the illustration of data an explanation is given on how the GNI and GNI per capita are derived from the GDP. Athough a serie of years are presented in the tables, the focus in this article i s on the year 2014 2015. All figures in this article are in ANG. 1 In the case of Curaçao Income earned by citizens and residents living outside Curaçao 2 Is income without deduction of income taxes and employees social contributions

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 24 DEFINITIONS 3 : GDP (Gross domestic product) is the sum of the gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the v alue of the products. It is calculated without deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. GNI (Gross national income) is Gross domestic product (GDP) plus net receipts of primary income (income from investment and employment) from abroad. GNI per capita is gross national income divided by mid year population. Primary income is the income which resident units receive by virtue of their participation in the production process, and income receivable by owners of financial or other assets in return for placing assets at the disposal of other institutional units. Conversion of the GDP into GNI and GNI per capita, 2015 Gross national income is operationally defined in relation with GDP as follows: In more specific form, to convert the GDP of a country to GNI one must add two items to the former, namely: Compensation of employees is the total remuneration, in cash or in kind, payable to an employee in return for the work the employee has done. Net compensation of employees is compensation of employees received minus compensation of employees paid. Property income is the sum of investment income and rents. Net property income receivable from abroad is property income received from abroad minus proper ty income paid to abroad. Table 1 and 2 provide for the interrelation between GDP and GNI. Figure 2 shows the relationship between GNI, GNI per capita and mid year population. 3 SNA1993/ 2008, (World bank, OECD and IMF) GNI = GDP + primary income (including earnings) received from the rest of the world primary income (including earnings) paid to the rest of the world (see table1 ) Net compensations of employees receivable from a broad (labour cost) Net property income receivable from abroad (Rents and profits or investment income). (See table 2)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 25 As stated before GNI is GDP plus primary income received from abroad minus prima ry income paid to abroad. From table 1 it is observed that the Gross Domestic Product 4 went from 5,654 million in 2014 to 5,642 million in 2015, a decrease of 0.2 percent. In 2015 the primary income received from abroad has increased with almost 40 millio n (which represents a nominal growth of 18 percent), from 223 million in 2014 to 263 million in 2015. The primary income that economic agents paid to abroad has decreased with almost 4 percent, from almost 272 million ANG in 2014 to 262 million ANG in 201 5. As a result of the above mentioned development in the GDP and in the primary income, the Gross national income of Curaçao has increased with 0.7 percent, from 5,604 million in 2014 to 5,644 million in 2015. Table 1. Gross national income (GNI) per cap ita 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices, in million. ANG 5,439.30 5,604.70 5,634.20 5,653.50 5,641.90 Primary income from abroad (+) 197.8 172.4 175.8 222.8 263.1 Primary income paid to abroad ( ) 221.6 250.1 272.1 272 261.6 Gross national income (GNI) at current prices, in million. ANG 5,415.50 5,526.90 5,537.90 5,604.30 5,643.50 150.8 152.1 153.8 156.9 159.7 Mid year population, in thousand ANG 35904.2 36340.3 36002.2 35715.2 35348.2 Gros s national income per capita, in ANG 2.1 0.2 1.2 0.7 Growth of Gross national income in (%) Growth of population (%) 0.8 1.1 2 1.8 Growth of Gross national income per capita, in (%) 1.2 0.9 0.8 1 4 For a detailed analysis of the GDP see the Economic growth and labour market in Curaçao 2013

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 26 Primary income The primary inco me consist of compensation of employees and the property income (income from investments and other income as dividends) Primary income received from abroad Primary income received from abroad is compensation of employees from abroad 5 plus property income r eceived from the rest of the world. In 2015 a 16 percent, more compensation of employees was received from the rest of the world than in 2014. In 2014, the value was 79 million and 91 million in 2015. The property income that was received from the rest of the world has increased with almost 28 million ANG, from 144 million ANG in 2014 to 172 million ANG in 2015. The reason for this increase is that more interest (on investment) and distributed income of corporations were received in 2015. The increase in b oth the compensation of employees and in property income has resulted in an increase of the primary income received from abroad. The amount went from 223 million ANG in 2014 to 263 million ANG in 2015. Table 2. Transition and balancing items , 2011 201 5, in million ANG 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gross domestic product (1) 5,439.3 5,604.6 5,634.2 5,653.5 5,641.9 Net Compensation of employees (2) 49.9 41.7 47.7 60.4 76.3 from the rest of the world 60.7 54.3 59.2 79.0 91.3 to the rest of the world 10.8 12.6 11.5 18.6 15.0 Net Property income (3) 73.7 119.4 144.0 109.6 74.7 from the rest of the world 137.1 118.1 116.6 143.8 171.8 to the rest of the world 210.8 237.5 260.6 253.4 246.6 Gross national income (=1+2+3) 5,415. 5 5,526.9 5,537.9 5,604.3 5,643.5 Primary income paid to abroad The primary income paid to abroad is compensation of employees paid to abroad 6 plus property income paid to abroad. In 2015 almost 19 percent less compensation is paid to the rest of the worl d. While in 2014 an amount of 19 million was calculated, in 2015 it was about 15 million In that same year more interest (on investment) was received , but less dividends, effecting the property income paid to abroad decreased with almost 3 percent, from 2 53 million to 247 million in 2015. As a consequence of the fall in both the compensation of employees and in the property income in 2015 (table 2), the primary 5 is paid to citizens of Curaçao working abroad such as the embassy 6 Paid to foreigners working in Curaçao such as Marine Corps

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 27 income paid to abroad has fallen with almost 4 percent, from 272 million in 2014 to 262 million in 2015 (table 1). Mid year population 7 Mid year population is the population by July 1 st .Since birth and deaths are not happening at the same time in a year, the mid year population is used. Calculation of mid year population of 2015 is average popula tion of January 1 st , 2015 and January 1 st , 2016. In 2014, the population of Curaçao consisted of about 157 thousand persons. In 2015 an amount of about 160 thousand persons were registered, resulting in a growth of 1.8 percent. Gross national income per capita As can be read from table 1 in 2015 the Gross national income has grown with 0.7 percent and midyear population with 1.8 percent. Because midyear population has grown faster than GNI as a result gross national income per capita has decreased with 1.0 percent, from 35,715 in 2014 to 35,348 in 2015. This means that the average income of Curaçao is 35,348 (a year). On a monthly basis, this will be between two and three thousand. 7 For more information see the publication on Demography

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 28 Conclusion The GNI for Curaçao was 5,630 m illion in 2015, which represents a nominal growth of 0.7 percent compared to 2014. It is derived by adding to the GDP the net compensation of employees received and net property income received. The GNI per capita is derived by dividing the GNI by the mi dyear population. With a population of 160 thousand, the GNI per capita arrived at 35,348, meaning that the average income of Curaçao was 35,348, on a monthly basis between two and three thousand. The GNI per capita is used as a measure of the welfare of a country. But on the basis of this figure only and other information in this article, one cannot make a statement that there is welfare and wellbeing for everyone in Curaçao. Per capita income can only be serving as a satisfactory indicator of development if national income is evenly distributed. References: System of National Accounts,1993 System of National Accounts, 2008 Balance of Payments Curaçao Economic growth and labour market in Curaçao 2013 201 Http://www.economicsonline.co.uk

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 29 International reserves: a Precautionary or a Mercantilist instrument Glenda Varlack The world economy has experienced a process of global financial integration, with large increases in cross border capital flows in both emerging and developed economies. That is why the allotment of an international reserve is of essence for every country. International reserves are comparable to a wallet with foreign currencies that every country has. Th is wallet is generally held by the Central Bank. In most countries likewise for Curaçao and St. Maarten, the international reserves are managed by the Central Bank, which includes regulating the transfer of payments between residents of Curaçao and St. Ma arten and non residents. For instance a country's exporters deposit foreign currencies into their local banks that in turn transfer these foreign currencies to the central bank. Exporters are paid by their trading partners in U.S. dollars, euros, or other currencies. The exporters at that point exchange them for the local currency consequently it is used to pay their workers and local suppliers. (Example: If China and Curaçao trade with each other and Curaçao exports sugar to China. China cannot pay Curaçao used trading currency i.e. the US dollar. For this purpose China would have vast reserves of US dollars, so trade between Curaçao and China would be smooth and seamless, vice versa for Cura çao to China.) Our currency is pegged to the US dollar which also is mostly use as foreign exchange. Worldwide the US dollar is also the most important currency in global reserves. In some countries the reserves are accumulated for precautionary reasons to shield against shocks, including those from volatile international capital flows, preserve financial stability and to prevent food shortages. In other countries, reserves accumulation is viewed as a by product of promoting exports, which is needed to crea te better jobs, thereby absorbing abundant labor in traditional sectors, which is a more mercantilist approach. In this article a look will be taken into the development of the international reserves in Curaçao and St. Maarten for the years 2010 2016. An attempt will be made to see if the international reserve is used as a precautionary or a mercantilist instrument for these islands. Other underlying explanations such as assets and liabilities and the import and export will also be highlighted. All data va lue is in millions of guilders (NAf.)

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 30 Definitions International reserves : The assets denominated in foreign currency, plus gold, held by a central bank, sometimes for the purpose of intervening in the exchange market to influence or peg the exchange rate. Usually includes foreign currencies themselves (especially US dollars), other assets denominated in foreign currencies, gold, and a small amount of special drawing rights (SDRs). International reserves are any kind of reserve funds that can be pas sed between the central banks of different countries. International reserves are an acceptable form of payment between these banks. The reserves themselves can either be gold or else a specific currency, such as the dollar or euro. A gold reserve is the go ld held by a central bank, intended as a store of value and as a guarantee to redeem promises to pay depositors, note holders (e.g. paper money), or trading peers, or to secure a currency. Foreign exchange reserves (also called forex reserves or FX reserve s) is money or other assets held by a central bank or other monetary authority so that it can pay if necessary its liabilities, such as the currency issued by the central bank, as well as the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank by the gov ernment and other financial institutions. Special drawing rights (ISO 4217 currency code XDR, also abbreviated SDR) are supplementary foreign exchange reserve assets defined and maintained by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The SDR is the unit of a ccount for the IMF, and is not a currency per se. Mercantilist view focuses on hoarding international reserves in order to prevent or mitigate appreciation, with the ultimate goal of increasing export growth. Precautionary view self insurance against costl y output contractions induced by sudden stops and capital flight. This model is used to provide a welfare evaluation of the costs and benefits of hoarding reserves and the optimal size of precautionary demand. Assets and Liabilities The International rese rves consist of assets and liabilities (see Box1). The assets cover the monetary gold; other form of international reserves. It was created by the International Monetary Fund to supplement the existing reserves of member countries. The reserve assets are mainly to finance trade imbalances, check the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations an d address other issues under the supervision of the central bank. Most countries hold international reserve in currencies or other assets denominated in US dollars, euros and Japanese yen, and some in currencies of other countries. The amount of internatio nal reserve held is determined in relation to the proportions of the amount of currencies used in the international transactions by the country.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 31 Reserves are generally acquired (either singularly or in combination): By borrowing foreign currency directly , for example, by issuing foreign currency securities (either in the name of the central bank or with the central government acting as an intermediary); by borrowing foreign currency through the foreign exchange swap or cross currency swap markets; by pu rchasing reserves outright, by selling the domestic currency in exchange for foreign currency 1 . related liabilities are foreign currency liabilities associated with reserve assets of the monetary authorities, i.e., liabilities in foreign currency that can be regarded as direct claims by 2 The reserve liabilities are basically payment of debt or loans to other countries. The more foreign debt a country accumulates the more liable it is to other count ries. A country which is heavily dependent on import is more vulnerable to acquire such risk. Box 1: Component of Reserve Assets and Reserve Related Liabilities 3 Reserve assets (gross international reserves) Monetary gold Special dra wing rights Reserve position at the IMF Other reserve assets Currency and deposits Claims on monetary authorities and other entities Securities Financial derivatives Reserve related liabilities to nonresidents ( short term on a remaining maturity basis) Credit and loans from the IMF Debt securities Deposits Loans Other short term foreign currency liabilities to nonresidents

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 32 erves The Central Bank of Curaçao and St. Maarten (CBCS) manages the international reserves of their name counterparts. A descriptive look will be taken for the years 2010 to 2015 to understand how the international reserves have developed (table 1). Tabl e 1: International Reserves MONETARY AUTHORITIES COMMERCIAL BANKS Gold Foreign Exchange CBCS Total Official Reserves Short term Foreign Liabilities CBCS Net Official Reserves Net Foreign Assets Net Intern. Reserves 2010 1,057.6 2,260.4 3,318.0 666.9 2,651.1 1,163.7 3,814.8 2011 1,184.8 2,308.9 3,493.7 820.8 2,672.9 765.1 3,438.0 2012 1,252.2 2,031.2 3,283.4 605.9 2,677.5 688.6 3,366.1 2013 904.1 1,982.9 2,887.1 531.5 2,355.5 659.3 3,014.8 2014 902.4 2,442.8 3,345.2 472.8 2,872.4 715.2 3,587.7 201 5 799.4 2,470.6 3,269.9 380.5 2,889.4 978.8 3,868.2 2016 872.2 2,658.0 3,530.3 506.4 3,023.9 813.6 3,837.5 Source: CBCS Gold reserves One of the items on the international reserve is the gold reserve. History proves that only gold retains its valu e during wars and chaos, changes of governments, and times of crisis. Even though it is now officially held to be of only industrial value, gold is the oldest and most respected currency in the world and the only one respected when national paper currencie s lose value. The use of gold reserves is now limited almost exclusively to the settlement of international transactions. On the development sheet of international reserves for Curaçao and St. Maarten there is a dwindling down of the gold reserve. In 2010 it was valued at about NAf. 1,058 and in 2015 at about NAf. 799, which is a decline of about 24 percent. The lowest decline amongst the given years is in 2013, during which year the gold reserves dropped approximately 28 percent (see fig.1). In 2016 there is a turn of events where the gold reserves are showing a growth of 9 percent in comparison to 2015.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 33 Figure 1 Foreign exchange The total official reserves include gold and foreign exchange (table 1). The foreign exchange is currency from other countr ies, but mostly held in US$. The currency is mostly used in international transactions, international investments and all aspects of trade in the global economy. The foreign exchange for the islands in contrary to the gold, has incrementally been increasin g subsequently from 2013 to 2016 (24.6%). If we compare 2016 (NAf. 2,658.0) with 2010 (NAf. 2,260.4) the increase was more than 17 percent. Figure 2 The short term foreign liabilities The net official reserves are the subtraction of the short term forei gn liabilities from the total official reserves (table 1). The short term foreign liabilities are the debt owed to an international organization for a short term. The short term foreign debt that Curaçao and St. Maarten are liable for has declined in 2015 to NAf. 380.5 (table 1). With the exception of 2011, the short term debt has been gradually

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 34 dropping to the aforementioned value of 2015. The sharpest drop amongst the given years in foreign liabilities was in 2012 followed by 2015 with respectively 26 and 20 percent (figure 3). If the debt drops the reserves allegedly should increase which gives more leeway to sustain imports and exports, which are essential to gain access to resources and to create additional demand for goods and services. The islands are heavily dependent on foreign goods and services so without the ability to trade in different currencies, it would limit their economic growth. Lesser liabilities means more reserves. In 2016 however there is a growth in liability of 33 percent in compar ison to the drop of 2015. Figure 3 The net foreign assets The net foreign assets (NFA) position of a country is the value of the assets that country owns abroad, minus the value of the domestic assets owned by foreigners. A positive NFA balance indica tes that it is a net lender, while a negative NFA balance shows that it is a net borrower. A net borrower (also called a from the World Bank is that it is the sum of foreign assets held by monetary authorities and deposit money banks, less their foreign liabilities. The foreign assets which are resources owned abroad, have experienced fluctuation during 2010 through 2015. From 2010 to 2013 it has spiraled do wnward with respectively 34, 10 and 4 percent, while in 2014 to 2015 it has picked up again to around 37 percent (figure 4). In 2016 however there is drop of 17 percent, thus maintaining Curaçao and St. Maarten as a position of a net lender.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 35 Fig ure 4 The International Reserves The net international reserves are a summation of the net official reserves and the net foreign assets. The net international reserves show a slower increase of 8 percent from 2014 to 2015, but in 2016 there is a slight d rop of 1 percent (figure 5). The largest drop in international reserves was in 2011 and 2013 where the percentage value was equally about 10 percent. In most instances, reserves are safeguarded and invested by central banks. As it is discussed internationa l reserve is comprised of different components which were highlighted in the previous segments. Figure 5

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 36 International Reserve as a Precaution The traditional use of reserves is as savings for potential times of crises, especially balance of payment s crises. In other words international reserve serves as an insurance against risky international market fluctuations. These crises can be related to the current account, or it can include financial account needs as well 4 . Developing countries that are fac ed with balance of payments imbalances and current account deficits are usually confronted by shortages of foreign currencies. Consequently they are unable to pay their imports and short term debt. To resolve these problem foreign policy makers came with t he idea to store up international reserves as a precaution. The rule of thumb for holding reserves as a consequence of the increasing of financial flows is known as Guidotti Greenspan rule and it states that a country should hold liquid reserves equal to t heir foreign liabilities coming due within a year 5 . The liquid reserves or the foreign currency liquidity is a broader concept than that of international reserves. Financial flows in the context of balance of payments imply the movements of money or capit al from one country to another. International Reserve as Monetary Mercantilism According to this view, countries accumulate foreign reserves in order to support export growths by influencing exchange rates. Also the accumulation of reserves serves to sh ow economic strength by accumulating wealth by the amount of reserves owned. For example countries export as much products as possible to accumulate as much foreign exchange as possible. The substantial accumulation without spending of international reserv es by several East Asian countries has been frequently attributed to a modern version of monetary mercantilism. This monetary mercantilism entails the hoarding of international reserves in order to improve competitiveness. Countries do this by keeping the ir currencies undervalued compared to other countries. The currencies are kept undervalued by intervening in forex markets and buying foreign currencies and not letting the currencies appreciate 6 . The advantage of reserve purchases allows a country to insu re itself against a weak position on its domestic currency and, more generally, reserve can help stabilize the value of that currency over time. On the cost side, reserve purchases generally result in lost interest income for the central bank and expose it to potentially large capital losses should the domestic currency eventually strengthen against reserve currencies. For China the mercantilist reserve hoarding has served them well with their policy goals (fast GDP expansion and labor mobilization) and it has been compatible with the US ones (high households' consumption).

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 37 The policy on reserves The international reserve for Curaçao and St. Maarten can be categorized more in a precautionary state this due to the policy that the central bank maintains. A they chose for an indirect credit control approach of which the reserve requirement is the main their dome stic liabilities at the Central Bank on a non interest bearing blocked account. The reserve requirement percentage is determined on a monthly basis, based on the developments in the free reserves of the commercial banks, the pace of credit growth, and the official foreign exchange reserves vis à 7 . The motivation behind this instrument is that by regulating the liquidity in the banking system the prospective for credit extension can be controlled. Depending on t he balance of payments or trade surplus (more exports than imports) or deficits (more imports than exports), as defined in Trade Statistics, a country is either growing its foreign exchange reserves (which will help it to defend its currency through purcha ses of foreign currency), or has shrinking reserves, which may leave it exposed to external influences. This is true for all countries except the US, since the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency. With fears that the US dollar is being undervalued by large budget deficits in America, central banks are tending to stockpile gold reserves as a fallback and hedge against inflation.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 38 Conclusion International reserve accumulation in combination with reserve exchange rate undervaluation theoretically is c onsistent with both precautionary and mercantilist motives. The Curaçao and St. Maarten reserves however are managed on a more precautionary level. This is to ensure that banks e borrower can repay regarding the foreign liabilities. The objective of foreign reserves is to ensure that sufficient funds are available to service the foreign liabilities. Countries with slight foreign exchange markets need to have reserves that can act as a stabilizer when countries service their foreign liability. Although the gold reserve, foreign exchange is on a rise, the overall international reserves are on a decline in 2016, after experiencing back to back increase in 2014 and 2015. This is mostl y caused by the high foreign liabilities experienced in 2016. The small level of foreign exchange reserve is a continuous challenge for decision makers. Bibliography: 1. Christian Vallence (2012), Foreign Ex author commenced this work in International Department, page 59 2. Reserve Related Liabilities: Presentation in the International Accounts Framework; Nineteenth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Bal ance of Payments Statistics Frankfurt, October 23 26, 2006 3. Balance of payments and international investment position manual (2009). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, Box 6.5 in BPM6, page 112 4. Bastourre, Diego, Jorge Carrera, and Javier Ibarlucia (2009). "What is driving reserve accumul ation? A 877. 5. Green, Russell; Tom Torgerson (March 2007 ). Are High Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Markets a Blessing or a Burden? ( PDF ). United States Department of the Treasury . Retrieved 2009 12 01 . 6. Jaewoo Lee ; Joshua Aizenman, (December 1, 2006), Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism : Long Run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding 7. The reser ve requirement (May 22, 2013), CENTRALE BANK VAN CURACAO EN SINT MAARTEN

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 39 A multidimensional assessment of Social Cohesion in Curaçao Nicole Wever From November 2015 to January 2016 a Social Cohesion Survey (SCS) was conducted for the first time in Curaçao. The idea behind this study was to gather a view of the state of key aspects of social cohesion in Curaçao. being of all its members, promotes inclusion, creates so cial involvement, stimulates participation, promotes trust, and offers its members the opportunity of upward mobility. This paper will give a theoretical overview of social cohesion followed by an analysis of the theory based multidimensional structure of social cohesion. This analysis will be a partial replication of a study conducted by CEPS/INSTEAD (Dickes, Valentova & Borsenberber, 2011). The analysis will consist of two steps. In the first step, measureable intermediate indicators will be constructed based on the dimensions suggested by theory. Followed by an analysis of the indicators in order to verify their empirical corroboration of the theory based multidimensional structure. Theoretical overview The concept of social cohesion is a concept that h as drawn a great deal of interest worldwide, both in the scientific world and in the social and political debate. It is a frequently researched concept, for which there is no clear definition (Bruhn, 2009). Over the years, several establishments in Europe, the US and Latin America have researched social cohesion, each using their own definition (e.g. CIEPLAN, Fernando Henrique Cardoso Institute, ECOSOCIAL, ECLAC, UN). In order to construct a questionnaire of social cohesion that encloses all the important a spects for Curaçao an exploration had to be conducted of all the existing definitions and operationalizations. This exploration has shown that even though a consensus does not exist for the definition of social cohesion, the existing definitions overlap ea ch other suggesting unanimity of what social cohesion entails in general terms. Social cohesion is seen by several researchers (Jenson, 1998; Bernard, 1999; Chan et al., 2006) as a group feature or as a characteristic of the society, instead of a charact eristic of an individual. According to these researchers, social cohesion is defined by different life domains and different type of relationships that cannot be measured by one indicator alone since it is a multidimensional concept. Table 1 displays the m ultidimensional structure of social cohesion. This framework shows connectedness on different domains, be it political or sociocultural and it shows whether the nature of the relationship is formal or substantial. This framework is furthermore adopted as a base for the study of social cohesion on Curaçao.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 40 Table 1. Framework of Social Cohesion Domains Nature of relations Formal/attitudinal Substantial/behavioral Political Legitimacy/illegitimacy: maintenance of public and private institutions which act as mediators Participation/passivity: involvement in management of public affairs. Trust in public, political and other major institutions Political participation Sociocultural Acceptance/rejection: pluralism in facts and virtue (tolerance in differ ences) Affiliation/isolation: share of common values, active participation and belonging to the same community Solidarity Socio cultural participation S ource: Bernard (1999) The purpose of the study conducted by Dickes, Valentova and Borsenberber (201 1) was to perform a theoretically based, multidimensional and comparable measurement of social cohesion in order to conceptualizations. The purpose of the current paper is to see whether the conceptualizations stipulated by Bernard (1999) and Chen et.al. (2006) are also applicable within the Curaçao context. Methodology The analysis used in this paper follows the steps used by Dickes, Valentova and Bors enberber (2011) as the purpose of this study is to replicate part of their analysis within the Curaçao context. This is possible as the European Values Study (EVS), the questionnaire that Dickes, Valentova and Borsenberber used to gather the data utilized to perform their analysis, was used as the base for the construction of the SCS. In order to conduct the current analysis only the items that measured concepts needed for the above mentioned framework were selected from the SCS. These items formed the sets of intermediate variables, which are constructed form the items based on overarching themes. In order to empirically validate whether these variables truly represent the constructs, a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed. A CFA is a multivaria te statistical procedure that tests how well measured variables represent the constructs. The total sample of the questionnaire was 2626, however when considering that all items should have a response for all the cases a total of 2232 complete cases remai ned to perform this analysis. Where necessary the items were reverse coded 8 . 8 Questions can be framed positively and negatively, this influences the interpretation of the analysis are interpreted in the same way/direction.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 41 Analysis The first step of this analysis was to select the 43 relevant items from the questionnaire and allocate them to the different variables within the theoretical frame. A f actor analysis was performed to group the different items into variables. This analysis is an empirical mean to allocate the items to the different variables. A factor analysis is used to simplify data by reducing the number of variables. This is done by e ntering all relevant items in the analysis, which after running would allocate the items in different groups (principal components). A condition to ascribe the variables to their theory driven hypothetical assignation within the frame is that they must hav e a high enough saturation on the first principal component. This means that the percentage of explained variance must be .10 or higher. Items that do not fall within the components are excluded from further analysis. Consequently, of the 43 items only 38 met the abovementioned criteria for further analysis. Table 2 provides a summary of the results of this factor analysis. alpha ( ). It is a measure of scale reliability. An alpha coefficient of .65 or higher is considered acceptable. Most intermediate variables in table 2 show an acceptable alpha coefficient, the exceptions included in the analysis despite their concerning alpha as the dimension would otherwise only consist of one intermediate variable .

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 42 Table 2. Intermediate variables Intermediate variables Items M* sd* Skew* K urt* Political sphere Formal relations Dimension: Legitimacy/Illegitimacy Confidence in democracy, government and national organizations Confidence in: Government Confidence in: Political parties Confidence in: Parliament Confidence in: Government serv ices .84 1.94 0.89 .637 .060 Confidence in national distributive systems and authority institutions Confidence in: Justice system Confidence in: Police Confidence in: Press Confidence in: Education system Confidence in: Church Confidence in: Healthcare s ystem Confidence in: Labor union .74 2.66 1.11 .032 .096 Sociocultural sphere Formal relations Dimension: Acceptance/Reject Distal solidarity Concerned with poor children Concerned with sick and disabled people Concerned with elderly people Concerned with unemployed people .87 3.75 1.02 .993 1.228 Proximal solidarity Concerned with people in the region Concerned with fellow countrymen Concerned with people in other parts of the world Concerned with immigrants .81 2.95 1.22 .114 .074 Personal sol idarity Concerned with friends and acquaintances Concerned with neighbors .74 3.09 1.25 .418 .247 Political sphere substantial relations Dimension: Participation/Passivity Participation in legal and illegal political activities Attending in a demonst ration Joining a strike Joining in boycotts Occupying buildings Signing a petition .72 1.52 0.50 .746 .166 Political concern How often do you follow politics in media How often do you discuss politics with friends How interested are you in politics .57 1 .60 0.83 .362 .709 Sociocultural sphere substantial relations Dimension: Belonging/Isolation Participation in social associations Do you belong to: Human rights/third world development Do you belong to: Peace movement Do you belong to: Conservationis m, environment, animal rights Do you belong to: Organizations involved with healthcare Do you belong to: Professional associations .65 0.05 0.05 1.898 3.112 Participation in youth & leisure associations Do you belong to: Sports/recreation Do you belong to : Youth work Do you belong to: Education, art, cultural activities Do you belong to: Local neighborhood actions .59 0.12 0.11 3.799 16.785 Note *: 9 , Kurt= Kurtosis 10 9 A me asure of (dis) symmetry 10 A measure of whether the data is heavy of light tailed compared to a normal distribution

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 43 Second, a CFA wa s conducted to test whether the observed data is in accordance with the representation of the dimensions of social cohesion as proposed by Bernard (1999). Figure 1 shows a CFA for the hierarchical model. The model shows the standardized estimates between t he different variables eg. between the items and the intermediate variables and the intermediate variables and the spheres. In a CFA the important information is found in the fit statistics, which can be found underneath the model. The Chi square ( cmin ) is large and significant which means that het hypothesis concerning a fit between the observed and the theoretical covariance matrix (as seen in table 1) should be rejected. This was however expected due to the large number of cases in the sample 11 . The other model fit statistics show however that the model is acceptable (RMSEA <.08 and CFI > .95). In other theory. Furthermore, it shows a relation between th e second order factors, being Formal and Substantial. Figure 1. CFA model 11 M ost model analyses are performed on sample sizes ranging from 200 to 500.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 44 Conclusions The analysis performed in this paper attempts to implement a method of validation of the SCS in order to reveal whether the survey is able to measure social cohesio n within the Curaçao context. In order to do this an analysis previously performed within the European context was replicated. The outcomes of the analyses show that the data of the SCS corroborates the existence of the multifaceted construct of social coh esion suggested by the theory of Bernard (1999). This result corresponds with the results of the analysis by Dickes et al. (2011). It has to be noted however that the composition of the intermediate variables of the current study differ from that of the analysis by Dickes et al. (2011). The reason for this is based in the way that the principal component analysis works. It finds the most appropriate compositions, variables that load with each other, for the existing dataset. In other words the composition s are overarching topics which are formed by a number of related topics. Therefore, the compositions that were acquired for the analysis within the context of Curaçao show the main topics that are relevant within the Curaçao context. Another reason why t he content of the dimensions might differ is because the analysis by Dickes et al. (2011) entails a large heterogeneous sample of 39 different countries. Therefore, the results of Dickes et al. (2011) could be seen as a mean of the responses of the differe nt countries which then provides a result for the European context. While the current analysis only entails data of one country, being Curaçao. Despite these differences both analysis have shown a relationship between the formal and the substantial spheres social cohesion. Reference concept, Lien social et Politiques RIAC, 41, 47 59. Bruhn, J.G. (2009). The concept o f social cohesion, The Group Effect . Chan, J., To, H. & Chan, E. (2006) Reconsidering social cohesion: developing a definition and analytical framework for empirical research, Social Indicators Research , 75, 273 302. Dickes, P., Valentova, M., & Borsenberg er, M. (2011). A multidimensional assessment of social cohesion in 27 European countries. CEPS/INSTEAD Working papers, 2011 07. Jenson, J. (1998). Mapping social cohesion: The state of Canadian research. Canadian Policy Research Networks, F|03.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 45 Resultaten Conjunctuurenquête jaar 2017 Chris M. Jager Inleiding In november en december 2017 zijn in het kader van de conjunctuurenquête (CE) bijna 500 bedrijven benaderd. Doel van deze enquête is om op reguliere basis, twee maal per jaar, actuele informatie te verschaffen over bedrijfsmatige en economische parameters en ontwikkelingen. Daarnaast dient het inzicht te geven in verwachtingen en opinies van ondernemers. In dit artik el wordt nader ingegaan op de resultaten van de opinievragen van de enquête. Kwantitatieve gegevens worden hier niet besproken en de omzetten en winst in beperkte mate. Allereerst wordt er een korte inleidende beschouwing gegeven over de methodologie zoals die voor de enquête wordt gebruikt. & verliesrekening) wordt een beeld gegeven van de verschillende onderwerpen waardoor de inhoud van dit artikel bestaat uit: In vesteringsbelemmeringen Vertrouwen in de economie Vertrouwen in de toekomst Mening ten aanzien van het investeringsklimaat Omzetmutaties Conjunctuurindex Bedrijfsresultaten Om een indruk te krijgen van het verloop en trend van de conjunctuur in een oogopslag is er sinds kort een conjunctuurindex opgesteld. Dit aan de hand van gegevens van vertrouwen in de toekomst, de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat en de veranderingen van de omzetten, de omzetmutaties. Deze zijn geaggregeerd in de vorm van een samengestelde index en geven zodoende een beeld van het relatieve verloop van de conjunctuur in de tijd. Daarnaast wordt er bij vertrouwen in de toekomst en de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat een nadere analyse gemaakt voor de drie voor conjunctuur en economie belangrijke

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 46 bedrijfstakken bouw, handel en horeca. Dit vanaf december 2010. De bouw is hier genomen vanwege de grote invloed op de conjunctuur, de handel vanwege de omvang van deze bedrijfstak en toerisme vanwege het economische en maatsch appelijk belang. Ook wordt er bij vertrouwen in de toekomst en de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat bij het aantal werkenden (grootte van bedrijven) een vergelijking gemaakt met voorgaande twee perioden. Deze wordt in grafiekvorm gepresenteerd. Metho dologie De conjunctuurenquête wordt twee keer per jaar onder de bedrijven op Curaçao gehouden. Doel van de enquête is om op reguliere basis actuele informatie te verschaffen over bedrijfsmatige en economische parameters en ontwikkelingen. Daarnaast dient h et inzicht te geven in verwachtingen en opinies van ondernemers. Deze informatie is van direct belang voor het krijgen van inzicht in (ontwikkelingen van) de economie, werk en werkgelegenheid en investeringsklimaat. In juni wordt geënquêteerd over het eers te halfjaar van het lopende kalenderjaar, in december over het gehele jaar. Dit wordt gedaan met behulp van enquêteurs met vragenlijsten en via email (ongeveer 40% van het totaal aantal benaderde bedrijven). Het onderzoek wordt uitgevoerd bij alle bedrij ven met tien of meer werknemers, terwijl van de bedrijven vanaf drie tot tien werknemers een steekproef wordt genomen. De CE is aldus voor een deel een steekproefonderzoek. Eind 2016 zijn er in totaal bijna 550 bedrijven benaderd. Daarvan waren bijna 21 pr ocent kleine bedrijven tot 10 werknemers, 57 procent middelgroot (tot 50 werknemers) en ruim 22 procent groot. Door het nemen van een steekproef wordt een schatting gemaakt van de karakteristieken van de gehele populatie (alle bedrijven) en kunnen daar op een verantwoorde wijze uitspraken over & verliesrekening . Bij de steekproeftrekking (voor de bedrijven van drie tot tien werknemers) wordt uitgegaan van een betrouwbaarheid van 95 procent (5% foutenmarge, z waarde van 1,96). Uitgaande van de gehele populatie van bedrijven vanaf 3 werknemers tot 10 werknemers komt dat op het moment van trekking neer op in totaal 330 bedrijven. De steekproef wordt proportioneel getrokken, waarbij rekening wordt gehouden met en uitgegaan van het aantal bedrijven per bedrijfstak. Bij vertrouwen in de toekomst, mening ten aanzien van het investeringsklimaat en omzetmutaties wordt ook inzicht gegeven in de situatie per bedrijfstak e n naar aantallen werknemers. Bij de verschillende onderwerpen wordt er een vergelijking gemaakt met voorgaande periode van een half jaar daarvoor (de enquête wordt immers twee keer per jaar uitgevoerd). Uitzondering daarop zijn de omzetmutaties en bedrijf sresultaten. Deze worden altijd vergeleken met de resultaten van december van het voorgaande jaar.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 47 De gepresenteerde conjunctuurindex is een samengestelde index. Deze is opgesteld aan de hand van gegevens van vertrouwen in de toekomst, de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat en de veranderingen van de omzetten (de omzetmutaties). Deze zijn niet gewogen en geaggregeerd en vervolgens grafisch weergegeven. Als basisjaar is genomen 2010, het jaar van de verzelfstandiging van het Land Curaçao. De conjunctu dat de lezer door deze index een idee krijgt van het verloop van de conjunctuur. Dit niet in absolute termen (het is een intervalschaal), doch in relatieve termen. Hierdoor is op eenvo udige wijze het verloop (trend) van de conjunctuur aan de hand van een drietal factoren gevisualiseerd. Enkele resultaten conjunctuurenquête Investeringsbelemmeringen Investeren in vernieuwing of vervanging is van groot belang voor het bestaan en in stan d houden van een onderneming. Wil een onderneming winst maken en vooral, winst blijven maken, dan zijn investeringen zelfs een conditio sine qua non. Investeringsbelemmeringen spelen dus een hele belangrijke rol bij het ondernemen en doen van investeringe n. Bijna 44 procent van de benaderde bedrijven heeft aangegeven te hebben geïnvesteerd in de tweede helft van 2017. Dat is 2 procentpunten meer dan juni 2016 en iets minder (3% punten) in vergelijking met december 2016. Van de bedrijven heeft bijna 35 pr ocent aangegeven dat er van investeringsbelemmeringen sprake is geweest. Dit is 2 procentpunten meer in vergelijking met juni 2017 en tevens 4 procentpunten meer dan 1 jaar daarvoor, december 2016. Zoals doorgaans het geval, is het tekort aan financiële middelen de grootste investeringsbelemmering ( zie figuur 1) . Wel is het de afgelopen periode afgenomen, sinds juni 2017 met 4 procentpunten. Het aandeel bedrijven dat een slechte marktverwachting als belemmering heeft aangegeven is eveneens met 4 procent a fgenomen; van 18 naar 14 procent. Daarmee is het vrijwel op hetzelfde niveau gekomen als afgenomen.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 48 Vertrouwen in de economie Vertrouwen is een belangrijk economisch begrip. Het wordt wel beschouwd als een bindmiddel voor de samenleving die ervoor zorgt dat mensen consumeren en geld besteden en ondernemers sneller zaken gaan doen, meer investeren en meer risico durven te nemen. Is er weinig vertrouwen dan za l er een meer afwachtende houding worden aangenomen, worden er meer zekerheden gevraagd en worden er minder zaken gedaan. Afwezigheid van vertrouwen kan een economie vertragen met alle nare gevolgen van dien. Het vertrouwen in de economie is naar de meni ng van de ondernemers de afgelopen periode (tweede helft van 2017) verminderd. Dit vooral in die zin dat het percentage bedrijven wat heeft aangegeven dat het de afgelopen periode verbeterd is, is afgenomen (zie figuur 2). Dat percentage is verminderd van 14 naar 5 procent van de bedrijven. Daarmee is de positieve ontwikkeling van de voorgaande periode (1e helft 2017) voor het grootste deel weer teniet gedaan. Het aandeel bedrijven wat heeft aangegeven dat het vertrouwen in de economie is verminderd, is to egenomen van 24 naar 30 procent. Het percentage ondernemers dat heeft aangegeven dat het vertrouwen gelijk is gebleven, is ten opzichte van afgelopen juni 2017 eveneens toegenomen en wel van 63 naar bijna 65 procent.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 49 Vertrouwen in de toekomst Het perc entage bedrijven dat in december 2017 heeft aangegeven vertrouwen te hebben in de toekomst, is in vergelijking met juni 2017 wat afgenomen, van 60 naar 57 procent (zie figuur 3). Het aandeel bedrijven dat heeft aangegeven géén vertrouwen te hebben in de to ekomst is bovendien toegenomen van 14 naar 19 procent. Het vertrouwen in de toekomst is aldus wat minder positief geworden in de tweede helft van 2017. Iets minder bedrijven hebben aangegeven geen mening te hebben over de gestelde vraag. Dit is ten opzicht e van afgelopen periode veranderd van 26 naar 24 procent.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 50 Vertrouwen in de toekomst op bedrijfstakniveau Indien gekeken wordt naar de resultaten van het vertrouwen in de toekomst op bedrijfstakniveau bij de grotere bedrijfstakken dan zijn er ook deze periode weer vrij grote verschillen. Vooral bij de overige diensten, handel en industrie is het vertrouwen relatief laag; respectievelijk 48, 50 en 51 procent heeft aangegeven vertrouwen te hebben (zie figuur 4). Bovendien zijn er vooral bij de overige die nsten relatief veel bedrijven die expliciet hebben aangegeven géén vertrouwen te hebben in de toekomst: 28 procent. Bij de bedrijfstakken transport & communicatie en in mindere mate financiële en zakelijke diensten zijn er relatief veel bedrijven die ver trouwen hebben in de toekomst. Met 81, 68 en 64 procent van de bedrijven zitten zij duidelijk boven het gemiddelde. Opvallend daarbij is bovendien dat bij de financiële diensten geen enkel bedrijf heeft aangegeven géén vertrouwen te hebben; het percentage bedraagt 0 procent. Vertrouwen bij bouw, handel en horeca Bij de ontwikkeling van het vertrouwen in de toekomst is er speciaal naar drie voor conjunctuur en economie belangrijke bedrijfstakken gekeken, te weten de bouw, handel en horeca (zie figuur 5) . De bouw is hier genomen vanwege de grote invloed op de conjunctuur, de handel vanwege het feit dat dit qua omzetten de grootste bedrijfstak is en toerisme vanwege het grote economische en maatschappelijk belang. Bij geen van deze drie bedrijfstakken is sprake van een verbetering van het vertrouwen in de toekomst. Wel zijn er een aantal vrij duidelijke verschillen.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 51 Bij de bouw is het vertrouwen in de toekomst de afgelopen periode iets afgenomen en wel van 58 naar 56 procent. Opvallend genoeg hebben da arentegen minder bedrijven aangegeven géén vertrouwen te hebben in de toekomst. Dit is duidelijk afgenomen van 18 naar 12 procent. Bij de handel is de situatie ten opzichte van de bedrijfstak bouw wat minder gunstig. Bij deze bedrijfstak is het vertrouwen afgenomen ten opzichte van juni 2017. Dit met 3 procentpunten naar 50 procent. Bovendien is het percentage geen vertrouwen toegenomen van 21 naar 24 procent van de bedrijven. Zonder meer opvallend is de situatie bij de horeca waar na zes perioden van toe name van het sterk toegenomen van 11 naar 27 procent van de bedrijven. Een duidelijke verslechtering van het vertrouwen in de toekomst bij deze bedrijfstak.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 52 Vertrouwen naar grootte Bij het vertrouwen in de toekomst naar het aantal werknemers van de bedrijven wordt een indeling gemaakt in 3 groepen, te weten 3 tot 10 werknemers (klein), 10 tot 50 werknemers (middelgroot) en 50 of meer werknemers (groot). Zoals vaker het geval, is gebleken dat bij de grotere bedrijven, vanaf 10 werknemers, duidelijk meer bedrijven vertrouwen in de toekomst hebben dan bij de kleine bedrijven (zie figuur 6). Het vertrouwen bij de kleine bedrijven is ook nu weer laag, slechts 36 procent van deze bedrijven heeft aangeven dit te hebben. Dit is 10 procentpunten minder in vergelijking met juni 2017 (46%). Bovendien zijn er nu, in tegenstelling tot de vorige periode, evenveel bedrijven die vertrouwen hebben dan die géén vertrouwen hebben in de toekomst; beiden 36 procent. De middelgrote en grote bedrijven hebben met respectievelijk 63 en 61 procent duidelijk meer vertrouwen in de toekomst. Opvallend daarbij is de afname van het vertrouwen bij de grote bedrijven ten opzichte van v orige periode; van 67 naar 61 procent. Net als bij de kleine bedrijven tot 10 werknemers is ook bij de middelgrote en grote bedrijven het geen vertrouwen te hebben in de toekomst (was 12% in juni 2017). Voor de grote bedrijven bedraagt dat 10 procent (was 6%).

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 53 Mening ten aanzien van het investeringsklimaat Het investeringsklimaat, ook wel genoemd ondernemersklimaat, is medebepa lend voor het gaan doen van investeringen in een onderneming. Van belang zijn daarbij zaken als vertrouwen, rechtszekerheid, functioneren overheid, stabiel financieel en politiek beleid, arbeidswetgeving, mate van corruptie en beschikbaarheid en kwaliteit van infrastructuur en productiefactoren. Een slecht investeringsklimaat kan leiden tot minder investeringen, minder economische activiteiten, minder werkgelegenheid en kapitaalvlucht. De mening of perceptie ten aanzien van het investeringsklimaat in Curaç ao is in vergelijking met juni 2017 per saldo weinig veranderd (zie figuur 7). Het aandeel bedrijven dat heeft aangegeven het klimaat goed te vinden blijft laag doch is toegenomen van 7 procentpunten naar 9 procent van de bedrijven. Daarentegen hebben wa t meer bedrijven aangegeven het klimaat slecht te vinden. Dat is toegenomen van 27 naar 29 procent. Ook nu weer beoordelen de meeste bedrijven het investeringsklimaat als Mening investeringsklimaat op bedrijfstakniveau Bij de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat op bedrijfstakniveau zijn de handel en de horeca de bedrijfstakken met de minst positieve perceptie. Dit gemeten aan de hand van de hoeveelheid bedrijven in deze bedrijfstakken die het invester ingsklimaat slecht vinden, respectievelijk 40 en 37 procent (figuur 8). Bij de bedrijfstakken bouw en transport & communicatie vinden relatief gezien de meeste bedrijven het investeringsklimaat goed, dit met 24 en 16 procent van de bedrijven. Daarbij moet wel worden vermeld dat bij de bouw relatief veel bedrijven het investeringsklimaat slecht vinden; 28 procent. Bij de financiële diensten is de perceptie het meest positief. Bij deze bedrijfstak heeft 83 procent van de bedrijven aangegeven het investerin

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 54 Mening investeringsklimaat bij bouw, handel en horeca De ontwikkeling van het investeringskli maat bij de drie bedrijfstakken bouw, handel en horeca laten ook hier (net als bij het vertrouwen) duidelijke verschillen zien. is echter sterk afgeno men van 73 naar 48 procent van de bedrijven. Daarentegen hebben aanzienlijk meer bouwbedrijven aangegeven het investeringsklimaat goed te vinden. Bedroeg dit de afgelopen perioden rond de 4 procent, afgelopen december 2017 hebben 24 procent van de bedrijve n aangegeven dit goed te vinden. Wel is het zo dat ook wat meer bedrijven hebben aangegeven het investeringsklimaat slecht te vinden. Dat percentage is toegenomen van 24 naar 28 procent. Al met al is er, relatief gezien, sprake geweest van een gunstige ont wikkeling bij de bouw en is de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat daar duidelijk beter dan bij de handel en horeca. Bij de handel is nauwelijks sprake van een verandering van de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat. wel van 7 naar 6 procent. Het minst positief is de ontwikkeling bij de horeca waar de perceptie zich sinds juni 2016 aan het verslechteren is. In de afgelopen periode is het aandeel bedrijven welke het investeringsklimaat slecht vindt, flink toegenomen van 31 naar 40 procent. Bovendien zijn hier minder bedrijven die het investeringsklimaat goed vinden. D at percentage is verminderd van 10 naar 6 procent. De perceptie van 60 naar 54 procent.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 55 Mening investeringsklimaat naar grootte bedrijven De perceptie van het investeringsklimaat als afgeleide van he t aantal werknemers van de bedrijven laat net als bij vertrouwen in de toekomst duidelijke verschillen zien. Ook hier is bij de kleine bedrijven tot 10 werknemers (net als in vorige perioden) de perceptie minder gunstig dan bij de grotere bedrijven van 10 werknemers of meer (zie figuur 10). Bij de kleine bedrijven vindt 51 procent het investeringsklimaat matig en 47 procent slecht. Dit is minder gunstig dan in juni 2017 toen deze percentages respectievelijk 56 en 39 procent bedroegen. Bij de middelgrote en grote bedrijven vanaf 50 werknemers zijn deze percentages gunstiger; 63 en 68 procent vindt het matig. Bovendien vinden hier slechts 26 en 24 procent van de bedrijven het investeringsklimaat slecht. Wel is dit minder gunstig dan in juni 2017 toen deze p en 21 procent waren. Bij alle bedrijven, klein dan wel groot, zijn de percentages van een goede perceptie van het investeringsklimaat laag. Bij de kleine bedrijven bedraagt slechts 3 procent (was 5% in juni 2017). Bij de middelgrot e en grote bedrijven vindt 11 respectievelijk 9 procent het investeringsklimaat goed. In de voorgaande periode waren deze percentages met 8 procent iets minder positief.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 56 Omzetmutaties De omzetmutaties geven inzicht in welke mate de omzet is veranderd in vergelijking met het voorgaande jaar. Bedrijven kunnen aangeven of de omzetten zijn toegenomen, dan wel afgenomen (zie figuur 11). In vergelijking met december 2016 is er een verslechtering opgetreden en is het percentage afgenomen is vermeerderd van 47 naar 49 procent, bijna de helft van de bedrijven.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 57 Omzetmutaties op bedrijfstakniveau Bij de omz etmutaties op bedrijfstakniveau voor de grotere bedrijfstakken (figuur 12) valt op dat vooral bij de horeca en bij de financiële diensten relatief veel bedrijven een toename van de omzet hebben gehad in de tweede helft van 2017: 50 en 43 procent. Wel is he t zo dat ook bij deze bedrijfstakken veel bedrijven (40, respectievelijk 50%) heeft aangegeven een afname te hebben gehad. De horeca is de enige bedrijfstak waarbij het percentage toename hoger is dan afname (50 ten opzichte van 40%). Bij de handel en ove rige diensten hebben weinig bedrijven, slechts 30 en 31 procent, een toename van de omzet gehad. Bovendien hebben hier meer dan de helft van de bedrijven (55 en 62 procent) aangegeven dat men te maken heeft gehad met een afname van de omzet in vergelijking met 1 jaar geleden. Ook bij de industrie is hier met 51 procent sprake van geweest. In vergelijking met de situatie van 2016 valt op dat er bij de bouw een duidelijke verbetering is opgetreden. Was er toen vooral sprake van een afname van de omzetten (bi j 54% van de bouwbedrijven) en nog geen kwart van de bedrijven een toename van de omzet boeken, in 2017 is 40 procent in staat geweest dat wel te doen. Een duidelijke verbetering. Bij de overige diensten is er juist van een verslechtering sprake geweest. Had in 2016 maar liefst 62 procent van deze bedrijven een toename van de omzetten, in 2017 is dat gehalveerd naar 31 procent. Bovendien heeft 62 procent dan te maken met een afname van de omzetten. Aldus is daar sprake van een zorgwekkende verslechtering. Figuur 12: omzetmutaties naar bedrijfstak

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 58 Omzetmutaties bij bouw, handel en horeca Indien wordt gekeken naar de ontwikkeling van de omzetten over de afgelopen 10 perioden bij de drie voor conjunctuur en economie belangrijke bedrijfstakken, bouw, h andel en horeca, vallen duidelijke verschillen op. Zo is er bij de bouw wederom een toename te zien van het aandeel bedrijven met een toename van de omzetten. Dit is de afgelopen periode verbeterd van 33 naar 40 procent van de bedrijven (zie figuur 13). B ij de handel daarentegen is van een geheel andere situatie sprake. Daar hebben minder bedrijven een stijging van de omzet gehad en is het percentage terug gevallen van 34 naar slechts 30 procent. Bij de horeca is sprake van een toename van het aandeel bed rijven met een toename van de omzetten. Dit is veranderd van 44 naar 50 procent. Conjunctuurindex Om een beeld te krijgen van het verloop van de conjunctuur is er in 2016 een aanzet gemaakt voor het opstellen van een conjunctuurindex. Daar er hiervoor geen internationale standaarden bestaan is dit gedaan is overleg en afstemming met de methodoloog van het CBS. Conjunctuurindices in het algemeen geven een beeld van de stand van de economie, opgesteld op basis van indicatoren. In het geval van de conjunc tuurindex voor Curaçao is dit gedaan aan de hand van gegevens van vertrouwen in de toekomst, de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat en de veranderingen van de omzetten (de omzetmutaties). Deze zijn geaggregeerd in de vorm van een samengestelde index waar bij 100 als beginpunt is genomen. De resultaten van deze exercitie zijn grafisch weergegeven in figuur 14. De bedoeling is dat men met deze index een idee kan krijgen van het verloop van de conjunctuur. Dit niet in absolute termen, doch in relatieve terme n. Hierdoor is op eenvoudige wijze, het bovenstaande in acht nemende, de trend van de conjunctuur zichtbaar. Sinds eind 2010, na het opheffen van de Nederlandse Antillen en de totstandkoming van het Land Curaçao, vertoont de conjunctuurindex een afnemend e trend (tot 51 in december 2013). Sindsdien is er van herstel sprake, met uitzondering van december 2015. Het tweede halfjaar van 2017 heeft dit

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 59 herstel zich niet doorgezet en is het wederom (net als in juni 2017) op 70 punten uitgekomen. Bedrijfsre sultaten Het aandeel bedrijven welke het jaar 2017 met een positief bedrijfsresultaat heeft afgesloten is uitgekomen op ruim 60 procent. Dit is 2 procentpunten hoger dan het bruto winstpercentage van december 2016 (zie ook figuur 15). Daarmee heeft de tren d van stijging, sinds 2013, zich voortgezet. Nog geen 40 procent van de geïnterviewde bedrijven heeft afgelopen december aangegeven een negatief bedrijfsresultaat over 2017 te hebben behaald, een afname van 2 procentpunt ten opzichte van 2016. Helaas is he t dus nog steeds zo dat een hoog percentage bedrijven (alhoewel in afnemende mate) niet in staat is winst uit de onderneming te behalen. Vooralsnog blijft er dus wél sprake van een licht positieve trend. Opgemerkt dient te worden dat deze percentages géén inzicht geven in de omvang van de bedrijfsresultaten en evenmin in eventuele faillissementen.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 60 Figuur 15: bedrijfsresultaten Bij de resultaten van de bedrijven op bedrijfstakniveau (voor de grotere bedrijfstakken, figuur 16) zijn het met name fi nanciële diensten waar relatief veel bedrijven (bijna 78%) winst hebben behaald in 2017. Bovendien is het 10 procentpunten meer dan het jaar 2016. Bij de horeca is het bruto winstpercentage met nog geen 52 procent duidelijk onder het gemiddelde van 60 proc ent (en 5% minder dan over 2016). Ook bij de bouw is met 56 procent sprake van een relatief laag percentage bedrijven met een positief bedrijfsresultaat. Wél is het een verbetering ten opzichte van 2016 toen dit percentage slechts 46 was. Opvallend is ver der de verbetering in vergelijking met 2016 bij de handel van 49 naar 60 procent in 2017. De overige bedrijfstakken zitten allen net onder of boven het gemiddelde van 60 procent.

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr. 1 61 Figuur 16: bedrijfsresultaten naar bedrijfstak

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Modus Statistisch Magazine Modus nr . 1 62 Samenvattende opme rkingen De opinies en bedrijfsresultaten van de conjunctuurenquête van december 2017 laten gemiddeld genomen een licht negatieve ontwikkeling over het jaar 2017 zien. Wat meer bedrijven hebben aangegeven, nu bi jna 35 procent, dat er van investeringsbelem meringen sprake is geweest. H et vertrouwen in de economie over de afgelopen periode (de tweede helft van 2017) is wat afgenomen. Het aandeel bedrijven dat heeft aangegeven vertrouwen te hebben in de toekomst, is eveneens afgenomen en wel van 60 naar 57 pro 14 naar 19 procent van de bedrijven. Vooral bij de overige diensten, handel en industrie is het relatief gezien minder goed gesteld met het vertrouwen in de toekomst en ligt dit met ongeveer 50 procent du idelijk onder het gemiddelde. Bij transport & communicatie en de financiële diensten is het vertrouwen in de toekomst relatief goed. Gebleken is ook afgelopen periode dat bij de grotere bedrijven, vanaf 10 werknemers, duidelijk meer bedrijven vertrouwen in Daar is dat afgenomen naar slechts 36 procent van de bedrijven. Daardoor zijn er nu evenveel kleine bedrijven die vertrouwen hebben dan die géén vertrouwen hebben in de toekomst. De mening ten aanzien van het investeringsklimaat is ten opzichte van juni 2017 weinig veranderd, doch blijft wel weinig positief. Hier zijn d e handel en horeca de bedrijfstakken met de minst positieve perceptie. De perceptie bij transport & communicati e en financiële diensten is relatief goed. Bij de kleine bedrijven tot 10 werknemers vindt 51 procent het investeringsklimaat matig en 47 procent slecht. Dit is minder gunstig dan in juni 2017. Bij de middelgrote en grote bedrijven vanaf 50 werknemers zij n deze percentages gunstiger; 63 en 68 procent vindt het matig. Bovendien vinden hier af genomen naar 36 procent van de bedrijven. Opvallend is dat vooral bij de bedrijfstakken horeca en financiële diensten er veel bedrijven zijn geweest (50 en 43%) die een stijging van de omzetten hebben gehad. Opgemerkt moet worden dat ten opzichte van 2016 méér bedrijven hebben aangegeven een afname van de omzet te hebben gehad. Dit is met 2 procentpunten toegenomen van 47 naar 49 procent. Bij de kleine en middelgrote bedrijven tot 50 werknemers is de situatie minder gunstig dan bij de grote bedrijven van 50 of meer werknemers. Ongeveer 60 procent heeft daar te maken gehad met een afname van de omzetten. Bij de grote bedrijven is dat met 41 procent aanzienlijk gunstiger. In overeenstemming met het voorgaande blijkt uit de conjunctuurindex, een aggregatie v an vertrouwen in de toekomst, de perceptie van het investeringsklimaat en de omzetmutaties, dat er over het jaar 2017 geen sprake is geweest van een gunstige ontwikkeling. Sinds december 2013 is er van herstel sprake, met uitzondering van december 2015. He t tweede halfjaar van 2017 heeft dit herstel zich echter niet doorgezet en is het wederom op 70 punten uitgekomen. Het aandeel bedrijven welke 2016 heeft afgesloten met een positief bedrijfsresultaat is met 2 procentpunten toegenomen naar 60 procent.

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